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MES / MNQ 2026 Volatility Calendar
Scheduled macro, options, futures-roll, earnings, and rebalancing risk for the year, on one page. Date-specific rows follow the official Fed, BLS, BEA, Treasury, and CME calendars.
READ-ONLY PLANNING VIEW · NO BOT OR TRADINGVIEW SETTINGS CHANGED
SOURCES CHECKED 2026-08-09 · ALL TIMES ET
The year at a glance
Full bar = trading sessions. Green base = clear sessions; stacked color = rated events. Numbers read rated / clear.JAN
6 / 14
FEB
5 / 14
MAR
8 / 14
APR
6 / 15
MAY
5 / 15
JUN
8 / 13
JUL
6 / 16
AUGNOW
8 / 13
SEP
7 / 14
OCT
7 / 15
NOV
6 / 14
DEC
7 / 15
Tier 1Tier 2Tier 3Clear sessionsOutlined column = current month
172 of 251 2026 sessions carry no rated event — at least 69% of the trading year is clear. The 79 rated events are the exception, not the baseline.
Heat map key
A day takes the color of its highest-rated event, and escalates one level if it carries three or more rated events.Red · Tier 1FOMC, CPI, NFP, quad witching, quarterly futures expiration, Jackson Hole.
Orange · Tier 2Monthly OPEX, Core PCE, mega-cap earnings, quarter-end rebalance.
Yellow · Tier 3ISM, PPI, retail sales, consumer sentiment, Treasury auctions, jobless claims.
Green · ClearNo scheduled catalyst above Tier 4. This is the default state of the calendar: 172 of 251 sessions in 2026.
Slate · ClosedHoliday or weekend. Distinct from clear: there is no session to trade, so it carries no opportunity either.
2026 major market event dates
Bar height = count of Tier 1 events that month| Month | Tier 1 anchors | Inflation / labor | Options, futures, flows |
|---|---|---|---|
Jan | FOMC Jan 27-28 | NFP Jan 9; CPI Jan 13; PPI Jan 14 for Nov 2025 and Jan 30 for Dec 2025 verify/disambiguate | Monthly OPEX Jan 16; earnings season opens |
Feb | NFP / CPI cluster | NFP Feb 11; CPI Feb 13; PPI Feb 27 | Monthly OPEX Feb 20; Treasury refunding auctions Feb 10-12 ADDED |
Mar | FOMC Mar 17-18 with SEP; quad witching Mar 20 | NFP Mar 6; CPI Mar 11; PPI Mar 18 | Quarterly futures expiration Mar 20; official roll Mar 16; quarter-end rebalance Mar 31 |
Apr | FOMC Apr 28-29 | NFP Apr 3; CPI Apr 10; PPI Apr 14 | Monthly OPEX Apr 17; earnings season |
May | NFP / CPI cluster | NFP May 8; CPI May 12; PPI May 13 | Monthly OPEX May 15; Treasury refunding auctions May 12-14 ADDED |
Jun | FOMC Jun 16-17 with SEP; quad witching Jun 19 | NFP Jun 5; CPI Jun 10; PPI Jun 11 | Quarterly futures expiration Jun 18; official roll Jun 15; Russell reconstitution window; quarter-end Jun 30 |
Jul | FOMC Jul 28-29 | NFP Jul 2; CPI Jul 14; PPI Jul 15 | Monthly OPEX Jul 17; earnings season |
AugNOW | NFP / CPI cluster; Jackson Hole Aug 27-29 ADDED | NFP Aug 7; CPI Aug 12; PPI Aug 13; Core PCE Aug 26 ADDED | Monthly OPEX Aug 21; Treasury refunding auctions Aug 11-13 ADDED; NVIDIA Aug 26 after close |
Sep | FOMC Sep 15-16 with SEP; quad witching Sep 18 | NFP Sep 4; PPI Sep 10; CPI Sep 11 source order: PPI before CPI; Core PCE Sep 30 | Roll watch Sep 10; official CME roll Sep 14; quarterly futures expiration Sep 18; quarter-end rebalance Sep 30 |
Oct | FOMC Oct 27-28 | NFP Oct 2; CPI Oct 14; PPI Oct 15; ECI Oct 30 | Monthly OPEX Oct 16; earnings season |
Nov | NFP / CPI cluster | NFP Nov 6; CPI Nov 10; PPI Nov 13 | Monthly OPEX Nov 20; Treasury refunding auctions Nov 10-12 ADDED; Thanksgiving liquidity Nov 26-27 |
Dec | FOMC Dec 8-9 with SEP; quad witching Dec 18 | NFP Dec 4; CPI Dec 10; PPI Dec 15 | Quarterly futures expiration Dec 18; official roll Dec 14; year-end rebalance Dec 31 |
Rows marked verify disagree with the release pattern elsewhere on this page or require source disambiguation before they drive a sizing decision. Rows marked ADDED were absent from the previous revision.
Index futures event matrix
MES and MNQ priority map| Frequency | Event | Typical timing | Impact | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | Nonfarm payrolls | 1st Friday, 08:30 | Labor data drives rate expectations and reprices the whole index complex. | |
| Monthly | CPI | 10th-15th, 08:30 | Resets the Fed path in a single print. The highest-variance scheduled morning of most months. | |
| Quarterly | FOMC + dot plot | Mar / Jun / Sep / Dec, 14:00 | Statement, projections, and press conference are three separate moves. | |
| Quarterly | Futures expiration | Mar / Jun / Sep / Dec | Rollover, liquidity migration, and settlement positioning. Volume leaves the front month before expiry. | |
| Quarterly | Quad witching | 3rd Friday, Mar / Jun / Sep / Dec | Institutional options, futures, and index derivative repositioning all land together. | |
| Annual | Jackson Hole ADDED | Late August, Chair keynote Friday | No set statement template, no normal FOMC cadence, and historically a venue for framework shifts. | |
| Monthly | Monthly OPEX | 3rd Friday | Dealer gamma rolls off and intraday flow changes character for the following week. | |
| Monthly | Core PCE | End of month, 08:30 | Fed-preferred gauge. Confirms or contradicts the CPI read two weeks earlier. | |
| Quarterly | NVIDIA earnings ADDED | Late Feb / May / Aug / Nov, after close | Single largest scheduled MNQ gap risk outside macro. Spills into MES through index weight. | |
| Quarterly | Earnings season | Jan / Apr / Jul / Oct | Mega-cap tech clusters over roughly two weeks and dominates overnight gaps. | |
| Quarterly | Quarter-end rebalance | Mar 31 / Jun 30 / Sep 30 / Dec 31 | Pension and benchmark flows distort the closing auction and the hour before it. | |
| Annual | Russell reconstitution | Late June | Most direct for RTY and M2K, but broad index liquidity thins around it. | |
| Monthly | PPI | Usually after CPI, 08:30 | Confirmation input. Matters most when it disagrees with CPI. | |
| Weekly | Jobless claims ADDED | Every Thursday, 08:30 | The only weekly labor read. Escalates sharply when the market is trading a growth scare. | |
| Weekly | Treasury auctions | 13:00, refunding weeks Feb / May / Aug / Nov | Duration supply transmits into index futures within minutes of the 13:00 result. | |
| Monthly | ISM manufacturing | 1st business day, 10:00 | Growth and demand signal for cyclical risk appetite. | |
| Monthly | ISM services | 3rd business day, 10:00 | Read on the largest part of the economy, and the more market-moving of the two ISMs. | |
| Monthly | Retail sales | Mid-month, 08:30 | Consumer spending pulse on the growth side of the rate debate. | |
| Weekly | Weekly options expiration | Every Friday, 16:00 | Routine dealer hedge adjustment. Background unless it coincides with a Tier 1 print. |
Monthly trading rhythm
Baseline week-by-week shapeWeek 1
NFPISM manufacturingISM services
Week 2
CPIPPIRefunding auctions
Week 3
Monthly OPEXDealer gamma shiftRetail sales
Week 4
Core PCEEnd-of-month flowsGDP when quarterly
Jobless claims land every Thursday regardless of week, so the Thursday floor is never fully green.
Sample heat week
Template for MC importMonNormal session
TueISM / 3-year auction
WedCPI or FOMC
ThuPPI / claims / 30-year
3 x Tier 3 -> Tier 2
3 x Tier 3 -> Tier 2
FriOPEX / Core PCE / flows
SatClosed
SunGlobex reopen 18:00
Color the day by its highest-rated event, then flag any day carrying three or more rated events as stacked.
Quarterly high-risk weeks
Red and orange zones by quarterMarch
FOMC + dot plotQuad witchingFutures expiration3rd Friday OPEXMar 31 rebalance
June
Early June NFPMid-June CPIFOMC + dot plot3rd Friday expirationRussell reconstitutionJun 30 rebalance
September
Mid-Sep CPIFOMC + dot plot3rd Friday expirationQuad witchingSep 30 rebalance
December
Early Dec NFPMid-Dec CPIFOMC + dot plot3rd Friday expirationQuad witchingDec 31 year-end flows
Quarterly roll dates are official CME roll dates; the watch window can begin earlier when volume migrates. Related: weekly volatility watch email · generated every Sunday from this event source.